Walking the Martingale Tightrope: My $20-a-Match Betting Strategy
| No. | Date | Match | Selection | Odds $ | Stake $ | Profit $ | Bal (Target) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24-May | A League Auckland FC vs Melbourne Vict | Auckland FC -0.5 | 1.85 | 24 | -24 | -24 (20) | L |
| 2 | 24-May | A League Melbourne City vs Western United | Western United +0.25 | 1.87 | 51 | 22.19 | -1.81 (40) | W |
| 3 | 24-May | Swedish League Varnamo vs Osters IF | Varnamo -0.5 | 1.92 | 22 | -22 | -23.81 (60) | L |
| 4 | 24-May | Swedish League GAIS Gothenburg vs Sirius | GAIS Gothenburg -0.5 | 1.97 | 103 | 99.91 | 76.1 (80) | W |
| 5 | 25-May | US Soccer League San Diego FC vs LA Galaxy | San Diego FC -0.75 | 1.91 | 22 | 10.01 | 86.11 (100) | W |
| 6 | 25-May | US Soccer League San Jose Quakes vs Houston Dynamo | San Jose Quakes -0.25 | 1.90 | 34 | -17 | 69.11 (120) | L |
| 7 | 25-May | J League Fagiano Okayama vs Machida Zelvia | Fagiano Okayama +0.25 | 2.03 | 78 | 40.17 | 109.28 (140) | W |
| 8 | 25-May | J League Kawasaki F vs Gamba Osaka | Kawasaki F -0.25 | 1.85 | 59 | -29.5 | 79.78 (160) | L |
| 9 | 25-May | Swedish League Halmstads vs Elfsborg | Elfsborg -0.75 | 1.92 | 109 | 100.28 | 180.06 (180) | W |
| 10 | 25-May | English Premier Manchester Utd vs Aston Villa | Manchester Utd +0.75 | 1.95 | 22 | 20.9 | 200.96 (200) | W |
| 11 | 26-May | Italian League Udinese vs Fiorentina | Udinese +0.25 | 1.97 | 21 | -21 | 179.96 (220) | L |
| 12 | 26-May | US Soccer League Atlanta Utd vs FC Cincinnati | FC Cincinnati 0 | 1.85 | 71 | -71 | 108.96 (240) | L |
| 13 | 27-May | Swedish League Hammarby vs Degerfors | Degerfors +1.25 | 1.95 | 159 | 75.53 | 184.49 (260) | W |
| 14 | 27-May | K League Daegu vs Jeonbuk | Jeonbuk -0.75 | 1.91 | 105 | 95.55 | 280.04 (280) | W |
| 15 | 28-May | J League Urawa Reds vs Cerezo Osaka | Urawa Reds -0.25 | 1.87 | 23 | -11.5 | 268.54 (300) | L |
| 16 | 29-May | US Soccer League Toronto FC vs Philadelphia U | Toronto FC +0.5 | 1.77 | 67 | -67 | 201.54 (320) | L |
| 17 | 29-May | US Soccer League Portland T vs Colorado Rapids | Portland T -1 | 1.9 | 154 | 0 | 201.54 (340) | D |
| 18 | 30-May | Swedish League Brommapojkarna vs Djurgarden | Djurgarden 0 | 1.87 | 182 | 158.34 | 359.88 (360) | W |
| 19 | 31-May | Spanish League Div 2 Castellon vs Real Zaragoza | Real Zaragoza +0.5 | 1.8 | 25 | -25 | 334.88 (380) | L |
| 20 | 31-May | J League Nagoya Grampus vs Albirex Niigata | Nagoya Grampus -0.5 | 1.9 | 73 | 65.7 | 400.58 (400) | W |
| 21 | 31-May | K League Seoul vs Jeju | Jeju +0.75 | 1.93 | 22 | 20.46 | 421.04 (420) | W |
| 22 | 31-May | Swedish League Norrkoping vs GAIS Gothenburg | Norrkoping +0.25 | 2 | 22 | -22 | 399.04 (440) | L |
| 23 | 1-Jun | Spanish League Div 2 Malaga vs Burgos | Malaga -0.25 | 1.8 | 76 | -38 | 361.04 (460) | L |
| 24 | 1-Jun | UE Champions Paris SG vs Inter | Inter +0.25 | 1.95 | 166 | -166 | 195.04 (480) | L |
| 25 | 1-Jun | US Soccer League FC Cincinnati vs DC United | DC United +1.25 | 1.82 | 396 | 304.92 | 499.96 (500) | W |
| 26 | 1-Jun | US Soccer League San Diego FC vs Austin FC | San Diego FC -1 | 1.95 | 22 | 20.9 | 520.86 (520) | W |
| 27 | 1-Jun | K League Sangmu vs Suwon City | Suwon City +1 | 1.77 | 26 | 20.02 | 540.88 (540) | W |
| 28 | 1-Jun | Swedish League Mjallby AIF vs Varnamo | Varnamo +1.25 | 1.8 | 25 | -25 | 515.88 (560) | L |
| 29 | 2-Jun | Spanish League Div 2 Huesca vs Eldense | Huesca -0.75 | 1.97 | 66 | 32.01 | 547.89 (580) | W |
| 30 | 2-Jun | US Soccer League Seattle Sndrs vs Minnesota Utd | Minnesota Utd +0.5 | 1.92 | 57 | 52.44 | 600.33 (600) | W |
| 31 | 3-Jun | J League Cup Shonan Bellmare vs Jubilo Iwata | Shonan Bellmare -0.25 | 1.8 | 25 | 20 | 620.33 (620) | W |
| 32 | 6-Jun | W Cup - Qualifiers Oman vs Jordan | Oman +0.25 | 1.85 | 24 | -24 | 596.33 (640) | L |
| 33 | 6-Jun | W Cup - Qualifiers Korea DPR vs Kyrgyzsta | Korea DPR 0 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 596.33 (660) | D |
| 34 | 6-Jun | W Cup - Qualifiers Chile vs Argentina | Argentina -0.75 | 1.82 | 103 | 42.23 | 638.56 (680) | W |
| 35 | 7-Jun | W Cup - Qualifiers Estonia vs Israel | Estonia +1 | 1.92 | 67 | -67 | 571.56 (700) | L |
| 36 | 7-Jun | W Cup - Qualifiers Venezuela vs Bolivia | Venezuela -0.5 | 1.77 | 106 | 81.62 | 653.18 (720) | W |
| 37 | 8-Jun | W Cup - Qualifiers Malta vs Lithuania | Lithuania 0 | 2.03 | 85 | 0 | 653.18 (740) | D |
| 38 | 8-Jun | W Cup - Qualifiers Austria vs Romania | Romania +1.5 | 1.8 | 134 | 107.2 | 760.38 (760) | W |
| 39 | 8-Jun | US Soccer League DC United vs Chicago Fire * | DC United +0.25 | 1.8 | 134 | -134 | 626.38 (780) | L |
| 40 | 8-Jun | J League Cup Jubilo Iwata vs Shonan Bellmare | Jubilo Iwata +0.25 | 1.77 | 226 | 174.0 | 800.4 (800) | W |
| 41 | 8-Jun | J League Cup Kashiwa Reysol vs Tokyo Verdy | Kashiwa Reysol -0.25 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 820.4 (820) | W |
| 42 | 9-Jun | Spanish League Div 2 Racing vs Mirandes | Racing -0.25 | 1.97 | 21 | -10.5 | 809.9 (840) | L |
| 43 | 9-Jun | US Soccer League Portland T vs St Louis City | Portland T -0.75 | 1.85 | 59 | 25.08 | 834.98 (860) | W |
| 44 | 9-Jun | W Cup - Qualifiers Kazakhstan vs North Macedonia | Kazakhstan +0.5 | 1.87 | 31 | -31 | 803.98 (880) | L |
| 45 | 10-Jun | W Cup - Qualifiers Belgium vs Wales | Wales +1.25 | 1.77 | 99 | 38.12 | 842.1 (900) | W |
| 46 | 10-Jun | W Cup - Qualifiers Japan vs Indonesia | Indonesia +2 | 1.82 | 40 | -40 | 802.1 (920) | L |
| 47 | 10-Jun | W Cup - Qualifiers China PR vs Bahrain | China PR +0.25 | 1.92 | 81 | 78.57 | 880.67 (940) | W |
| 48 | 10-Jun | W Cup - Qualifiers Kyrgyzstan vs UAE | UAE -0.75 | 1.82 | 97 | -97 | 783.67 (960) | L |
| 49 | 11-Jun | W Cup - Qualifiers Iran vs Korea DPR | Iran -2 | 1.97 | 218 | 211.46 | 995.13 (980) | W |
| 50 | 11-Jun | W Cup - Qualifiers Jordan vs Iraq | Jordan -0.25 | 1.93 | 22 | -22 | 973.13 (1000) | L |
| 51 | 11-Jun | W Cup - Qualifiers Brazil vs Paraguay | Brazil -1.25 | 1.85 | 67 | -33.50 | 939.63 (1030) | L |
The Strategy
Before, I tried a controlled Martingale betting strategy that set up a stop order whenever I made $20 in profit every day. Then, I also tried out a slightly different but equally aggressive version of the same strategy in parallel. This time, there was no daily goal; instead, a new rule that required the next stake to recover the total stake wagered on recent losses in addition to the number of losses multiplied by per match target profit. Here are some examples:
- If 2 matches ended W-W, the 3rd match has to realize the usual profit of $20 only.
- If 3 matches ended W-W-L, the 4th match has to play an increased catch-up profit of
(1L worth stake) + 1 x $20 (1L) + $20 (self) = (1L worth stake) + $40 - However, if 5 matches end W-W-L-D-L, the 6th match has to play a massive catch-up profit of
(2L worth stake) + 3 x $20 (2L 1D) + $20 (self) = (2L worth stake) + $80
Results
From May 24 to June 11, I used the catch-up strategy (actual betting), which consists of 50 football games over a 24-day period. Here are the results:
- The Asian Handicap Win/ Lose summary:
Win % = 52% (26 matches) | Lose % = 42% (21) | Draw % = 6% (3) - The longest losing streak was three games, from May 31 to June 1. On the next game, US Soccer League FC Cincinnati vs. DC United, $396 was placed as wager, and $80 was won (3L + self).
- The anticipated profit after 50 matches: 50 days x $20 daily = $1000
- Projected profit for one month: ($1000 profit / 24 days) x 30 days = $1250
Martingale Risk: What Happens After 6 Losses
In all honesty, the Martingale strategy is intended for individuals with substantial financial resources. I asked ChatGPT to give me formulas to project expenditure under unforeseen circumstances after copying the 50 rows of the match results into Excel out of curiosity. An example of a scenario that I simulated is the possibility of six consecutive losses in the future, as the actual number of losing bets was three.
|
Target profit per match |
$20 |
|---|---|
|
(a) Total estimated stake for 6 losses (6L) |
$3561 |
|
(b) Next estimated stake to recover 6 lost stakes (a) + $140 profit |
$4627 |
|
Total required cash (a) + (b) |
$8188 |
It’s clear that after 6 losses—the next bet is about $4,600—and earlier losses of $3,500—one would need at least $8,100 in the betting account to get out of the losing hole. Although the monthly estimated profit conversion is approximately $1000 USD, there is a genuine risk of losing all the money gained and more when putting a large stake. Positively, managing your betting money and being disciplined makes it less likely that it will happen. But I don’t know how long that will last.
Update: I had kept this game plan going, but I raised the match profit goal from $20 to $30. In the event of three consecutive losing streaks, I once had to stake $1152, but it makes sense that raising the target profit would logically raise the stake exponentially. We’ll have more updates in the next post.
